While the Middle East may have
a reputation for instability and occasional violence,
there's no denying the vast riches it has to offer patient
investors.
Just months after the
announcement of $1 trillion worth of minerals in Afghanistan
comes word of oil discoveries in Israel...
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Israel may finally be able to
tell its Middle Eastern neighbors where they can stick their
oil — something the United States has wanted to do for
years.
In one of the most
sought-after parts of the world, 4.3 billion barrels of oil
could be sitting in the Leviathan project beneath the
Mediterranean, according to Noble Energy (NBL) and Israeli
partner Delek (DGRLY.PK).
And that's in addition to 1.5
billion barrel estimates for Rosh HaAyin, just east of Tel
Aviv...
Israel — heavily reliant on
imported oil, producing just 4,000 barrels a day with
250,000 barrel per day demand — couldn't be happier.
Well, unless you also tell
them that Leviathan could hold another 16 trillion cubic
feet of natural gas on top of the eight trillion
cubic feet of natural gas found in nearby Tamar...
Could Israel become a major
exporter with these finds? Possibly...
Is there high probability of
it joining OPEC with Iraq, Iran, and Saudi Arabia? Probably
not...
But it does mean Israel could
be within reach of the American “energy self-sufficiency”
dream. As Israel is on its way to energy independence, it's
most likely stirring anger among the oil hoarders of the
Middle East.
But really, who cares what
Middle Eastern countries think anyway?
Why patience will pay
off
Israel just found one of the
biggest natural gas discoveries in history and oil fields to
boot. Meanwhile, we haven't even mentioned the Givot Olam
onshore discovery, where 1.5 billion barrels of oil may be
waiting.
Heck, if all goes well, the
country could become an oil and gas exporter... see a spike
in employment... and watch as its currency skyrockets (the
New Israeli Shekel is now worth 26.3 cents to the dollar).
That alone would be huge for
an ETF like iShares MSCI Israel Cap Invest Market (EIS), and
U.S. stocks like Noble Energy (NBL).
But you have to have patience
waiting on real gains.
A decision on whether Israel
will drill for oil won't be made until October, when
drilling for gas at Leviathan begins.
There's also the potential for
violent flare-ups with Lebanon...
Debate has risen over whether
the Leviathan project extends into Lebanese waters, making
tension between the two warring countries even worse.
According to reports, Lebanese
Energy Minister Gebran Bassil told Noble “not to work near
Lebanon's maritime economic zone, saying his country would
allow Israel or a company working on its behalf to take gas
from Lebanon's zone.”
But Israel believes the
discovery lies in its own waters:
“There is no doubt that Israel
will do what it has to do” to protect the resources, say
other reports. “Adequate security appears to be in place for
oil and gas operations offshore Israel.”
Despite all the usual tension,
I recommend buying Noble (NBL) here — and waiting.
This could pay off well with
patience.
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Ian L. Cooper
Energy and Capital